Kalshi Ends Donald Trump Jr.'s Advisory Contract Over 1789 Capital's Polymarket Investment

Published November 13, 2026, 3:07 AM PKT. Based on the Reuters report published on November 12, 2026 (primary source), and reporting from CoinDesk, crypto.news, KuCoin and Bitcoin.com the same day (secondary sources). Market data from CoinGecko, November 12, 2026.

Kalshi has ended its advisory contract with Donald Trump Jr. after his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, increased its stake in arch-rival Polymarket, Reuters reported on November 12. A Kalshi spokesperson confirmed the termination, called the decision mutual, and said talks to end the role began in August, when 1789 Capital led Polymarket's most recent funding round. The split ends an arrangement that had Trump Jr. advising both of the prediction market industry's two largest competing platforms at the same time.

Prediction markets let users trade contracts tied to the outcomes of real-world events, including elections, economic data, sports and political decisions. Kalshi and Polymarket are the two largest players in the fast-growing industry, and they compete directly for users, trading volume, liquidity and market share. Kalshi operates as a federally regulated exchange under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while Polymarket operates offshore and serves users outside the United States.

The August talks that ended the advisory role

Kalshi named Trump Jr. a strategic adviser in January 2025, shortly before his father's second inauguration, at a time when prediction markets were gaining prominence after the 2024 presidential election. He was given an equity stake in the company that the Financial Times reported at the time was worth about $300,000, and his role involved helping Kalshi expand its reach, attract customers and build partnerships.

The relationship began to unwind in August, according to the Kalshi spokesperson. "We have mutually agreed to end Don's advisory role after his firm's significant investment in a competitor this past summer. We are grateful for his contributions in helping us market Kalshi to more customers," the spokesperson told Reuters. The spokesperson said the conversations to end the contract started in August, when 1789 Capital led Polymarket's most recent funding round, and that Kalshi reached out to Trump Jr. during the fall to discuss the conflict of interest.

Polymarket and Trump Jr. did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment. Representatives for 1789 Capital could not immediately be reached, Reuters said.

The Polymarket funding round that forced the split

The investment behind the split is large. 1789 Capital agreed to contribute about $300 million to lead a Polymarket funding round targeting $1 billion in September, according to crypto.news, and the round valued Polymarket at $21 billion, KuCoin reported. The firm had already committed about $200 million to Polymarket earlier, Bitcoin.com reported, bringing its total investment in the rival platform to roughly $500 million, according to the Washington Sun.

Trump Jr. is a partner at 1789 Capital. He joined Polymarket's advisory board in August 2025, at the same time as the firm's initial investment in the company, which meant he was advising both Kalshi and Polymarket simultaneously for more than a year. He remains connected to Polymarket through both his advisory role and his firm's investment, Bitcoin.com reported.

Reuters described Kalshi as a $40 billion prediction markets startup. The two platforms offer similar products, so an investment in one by a person associated with the other raises questions about competing business interests, CoinDesk noted.

The Democratic sweep and the scrutiny question

The exit lands in a changed political landscape. Democrats swept both houses of Congress in the midterm elections earlier in November, and Reuters reported the sweep could bring more scrutiny of companies over links to the White House. Democrats have said they plan to use their investigative powers on President Donald Trump's family, and prediction markets are already in their sights.

The Kalshi spokesperson said there were no political considerations behind the decision. But two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters there had been concerns raised inside the company about the potential ramifications of the Democratic sweep.

Democratic lawmakers have already aimed at prediction markets and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's defense of the platforms' sports-related products. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada said on X that "the Trump family is heavily invested in prediction market platforms" in a response to CFTC Chair Mike Selig, CoinDesk reported. Representative Ro Khanna of California called for a ban on those products, and Senator Elizabeth Warren has vowed to crack down on insider trading on prediction markets, according to Reuters.

Earlier this year, Senator Chris Murphy and Representative Greg Casar, both Democrats, introduced a bill to ban prediction market bets on military operations and other sensitive government actions. Several other efforts to rein in prediction markets are also moving forward on Capitol Hill, Reuters reported, after a series of well-timed market bets this year fueled questions about insider trading on the platforms and concerns over the legality and ethics of such trades.

What Kalshi faces next

The advisory split is not Kalshi's only pressure point. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission warned Kalshi on November 11 that charges are imminent over its contract notifications, Politico reported, a development MABOnChain covered the same day. The regulator had already told prediction markets in early November to drop state geoblocks within 30 days, and Kalshi argues that event contracts listed on federally regulated exchanges fall within the commission's jurisdiction.

Prediction markets first rose to prominence in 2024, when they diverged strongly from traditional opinion polls by signaling a Trump victory. Kalshi at the time boasted about the accuracy of its own forecasts while criticizing pollsters and traditional media for failing to anticipate the result, Reuters noted. Now the platforms face the prospect of heightened scrutiny in Congress, with the industry's two biggest names on opposite sides of a public split involving the president's son.

The market context

The news landed on a weak week for crypto markets. Bitcoin ($BTC) traded near $71,600 on November 12, down about 3.4 percent over 24 hours, while Ethereum ($ETH) hovered near $2,000, according to CoinGecko. US spot Bitcoin ($BTC) exchange-traded funds recorded about $299.8 million in outflows on November 11, a fifth straight day of withdrawals, and spot Ethereum ($ETH) funds lost $144.8 million the same day. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 28, in Fear territory.

What to watch next

The next facts to watch are whether the Commodity Futures Trading Commission files the charges it warned Kalshi about, whether Democrats in Congress open formal scrutiny of the Trump family's prediction market ties once the new session begins, whether Polymarket confirms the size of 1789 Capital's total stake, and whether Trump Jr. keeps his Polymarket advisory board seat now that his Kalshi role has ended. The $1 billion Polymarket round and the $40 billion Kalshi valuation also set up a direct contest for users and liquidity between the two platforms in 2027.

Sources

• Reuters, Exclusive: Kalshi ends Donald Trump Jr's advisory contract over Polymarket conflict, November 12, 2026 (primary source: Kalshi ended its advisory contract with Donald Trump Jr. after 1789 Capital increased its stake in arch-rival Polymarket, Kalshi spokesperson confirmed the termination and said the decision was mutual with talks beginning in August after 1789 led Polymarket's most recent funding round, Trump Jr. named strategic adviser in January 2025 with a stake the Financial Times reported was worth $300,000, spokesperson said no political considerations factored into the decision while two sources said concerns were raised inside the company about the Democratic sweep, Polymarket and Trump Jr. did not immediately respond, 1789 Capital representatives could not immediately be reached, Kalshi described as a $40 billion prediction markets startup, Democratic sweep of both houses of Congress could bring more scrutiny, Senator Elizabeth Warren vowed to crack down on insider trading on prediction markets, Senator Chris Murphy and Representative Greg Casar introduced a bill to ban bets on military operations and sensitive government actions)
• CoinDesk, Kalshi ends Donald Trump Jr.'s advisory contract over 1789 Capital's Polymarket investment, November 12, 2026 (secondary source: Kalshi terminated the advisory contract after learning of 1789 Capital's significant investment in Polymarket, Reuters reported, spokesperson confirmed, decision mutual and spurred in August after 1789 led Polymarket's most recent funding round, Trump Jr. joined as strategic adviser in January 2025 and received an equity stake reportedly worth about $300,000, Senator Catherine Cortez Masto said on X that "the Trump family is heavily invested in prediction market platforms", Representative Ro Khanna called for a ban on sports-related products)
• crypto.news, Kalshi ends Trump Jr. advisory role over Polymarket ties, November 12, 2026 (secondary source: 1789 Capital previously committed roughly $300 million to lead a $1 billion Polymarket funding round, Trump Jr. joined Polymarket's advisory board in August 2025, prediction market operators face disputes over state gambling laws and federal oversight of event contracts)
• KuCoin, Kalshi Ends Donald Trump Jr's Advisory Role After 1789 Capital Invests in Polymarket, November 12, 2026 (secondary source: Trump Jr. joined Kalshi in January 2025 and received equity worth roughly $300,000 when the platform was valued at under $2 billion, 1789 Capital contributed about $300 million to a Polymarket funding round that valued the company at $21 billion)
• Bitcoin.com, Donald Trump Jr. Exits Kalshi Role as Democrats Plan to Scrutinize Family Crypto Ties, November 12, 2026 (secondary source: 1789 Capital pursued an additional $300 million investment in Polymarket in September following an earlier $200 million commitment, Trump Jr. remains connected to Polymarket through both an advisory role and his firm's investment, departure comes after Democrats won control of Congress in the midterm elections)

This article is news reporting and is not investment advice.