Fed Rate Decision Oct. 28: Hold Odds Rise After Hike
Published October 5, 2026, 04:36 UTC
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on September 16 and meets again in late October. Since the hike, a soft jobs report has changed what markets expect next.
What the Fed did
On September 16 at 18:00 UTC, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4%, according to the Fed's statement. The committee said "inflation remains elevated" and that the move "will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal."
The statement described economic activity as "expanding at a solid pace," with resilient domestic spending, and said uncertainty "remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments."
Why it hiked
The decision followed a hot August inflation report. The consumer price index rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% from a year earlier, while core CPI rose 0.3% on the month, according to BLS. NBC News reported that market odds of a September hike rose from under 70% to nearly 90% in the minutes after that release. Capital Economics' Stephen Brown said at the time that "the Fed looks set to hike next week."
What changed since
The September jobs report, released October 2, showed payrolls up only 29,000 and unemployment at 4.2%. Afterward, the CME FedWatch tool showed a 79.5% chance of a hold at the October meeting, up from 35.8% a week earlier, Fox Business reported. The same tool showed a 66.2% chance of a quarter-point hike at the mid-December meeting. Market probabilities shift quickly and are not forecasts.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and other policymakers make their next decision on October 28, according to Decrypt.
The data before Oct. 28
The main release before that meeting is September CPI, scheduled for October 14 at 12:30 UTC, per the BLS schedule. See our CPI preview for what August showed.
Higher rates tend to weigh on risk assets, including crypto, because they raise the return on cash and bonds. Decrypt noted that a weaker labor market "eases pressure on the Fed to keep raising rates."
This article is news reporting and is not investment advice.
Sources
- Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (Sept. 16, 2026)
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, August 2026 (Sept. 11, 2026)
- NBC News, Inflation ticked up in August, setting the stage for the Fed to hike interest rates (Sept. 11, 2026)
- Fox Business, September jobs report (Oct. 2, 2026)
- Decrypt, 'Uptober' Starts Green as Bitcoin ETFs Draw $134 Million (Oct. 4, 2026)
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI release schedule, accessed Oct. 5, 2026
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