US October CPI Comes In Hot at 0.4%, Bitcoin ($BTC) Falls as a December Fed Hike Hits 98.8%

Published November 10, 2026, 6:50 PM PKT. Based on the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release USDL-26-1685 of November 10, 2026, CME Group FedWatch data of November 10, 2026, and reporting from CoinDesk and CoinTelegraph, both published November 10, 2026.

US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October 2026, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on November 10, 2026, beating the 0.3% rise economists had forecast. Core prices, which strip out food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month, also above the 0.2% forecast, and matched the 0.3% increases of September and August. The report landed at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time, and it was the last inflation reading before the Federal Reserve meets on December 8 and 9.

Bitcoin ($BTC) fell within minutes of the release, dropping from about $74,300 before the numbers to about $73,730 by 1:42 p.m. UTC, a fall of roughly 0.7% to 0.8% in about twelve minutes, according to Yahoo Finance. The coin was down $885.13, or 1.19%, on the day against the previous close of $75,253.86.

The 0.4% print, and the missing year-over-year number

The headline figure, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis in October, after a 0.6% rise in September, the bureau said. Without seasonal adjustment, the index rose 0.2% in October to 337.511. Food prices rose 0.1% and energy prices rose 1.6%, with gasoline up 4.0% on the month.

What made this release unusual is what it did not contain. The bureau published no 12-month change for headline CPI, core CPI, food or energy, or for most other series. Its Table A shows a dash where the 12 months ended October 2026 would normally appear. The only year-over-year figures in the table are for three series where October 2025 data were available: gasoline, up 37.4%, new vehicles, up 0.7%, and used cars and trucks, down 3.3%.

The gap traces to the federal government shutdown that ran from October 1 to November 12, 2025. The bureau said it did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of the lapse in appropriations, and that for most series it could not publish October 2025 indexes, so it cannot publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 where October 2025 data are unavailable. That leaves the monthly figures as the only read on inflation, and on that read, October was hotter than expected on both the headline and the core measure. September had already been hot, with headline prices up 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, and core prices up 0.3% on the month and 2.6% on the year.

Bitcoin ($BTC) slides within minutes of the release

Bitcoin ($BTC) was already under pressure before the release. It had fallen to about $73,761 late on November 8, its lowest level since August, CoinDesk reported, and it closed November 9 at $75,245. The hot print pushed it lower again, and the move fits the pattern of the past month: the coin has traded as a high-beta macro asset, falling when rate expectations rise, and it now sits roughly 40% below its all-time high of $126,156.

The selling is not only a price story. US spot Bitcoin ($BTC) exchange-traded funds lost $1.28 billion in the week ended November 6, their worst week since late June, according to The Block, and BlackRock's IBIT lost $213.2 million on November 9 alone, DefiLlama data showed. Ether ($ETH) funds have been losing money too, with $184.6 million out on November 9, per DefiLlama data. The October CPI print gives that outflow trend one more reason to continue, at least until the December meeting is behind the market.

A December hike is now priced at 98.8%

The CME FedWatch Tool put the probability of a 25 basis point hike at the December 9 meeting at 98.8% in its snapshot taken at the release moment, for a move in the target range to 4.00% to 4.25% from the current 3.75% to 4.00%. That compares with 84.0% one day earlier, 77.4% one week earlier and 69.8% one month earlier. The 98.8% figure was already showing in the snapshot taken just before the release, so the hot print confirmed a repricing that was largely done, rather than causing it.

The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, in a 10 to 2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a quarter-point increase. The committee said inflation remains elevated, and the October print, hotter than forecast on both measures, gives the hawks fresh evidence. The November CPI report arrives on December 10, a day after the Fed's decision, so policymakers will set rates at the December 8 to 9 meeting without a fresh monthly CPI reading.

Waller had already moved the market

Fed Governor Christopher Waller had already pushed hike odds higher before the release. Speaking at the Bank of England Watchers Conference in London, he said he would support a 25 basis point increase at the December meeting even if inflation cooled, and that a hotter-than-expected reading could warrant a 50 basis point increase, CoinDesk reported. After his speech, markets repriced the odds of a December hike from 76.3% to 96.3%, according to CME Group FedWatch data cited by CoinTelegraph.

Waller's position matters because it removes the usual escape hatch. A soft CPI print would normally let the Fed hold rates and wait for more data. Waller said he would back a hike regardless, which means the October numbers were never going to decide December on their own. What they did decide is the size of the debate: a 0.4% headline print and a 0.3% core print keep a 50 basis point move on the table as a live option, even if 25 basis points remains the base case.

What comes next before the December meeting

The next data point is the October producer price report on November 13, followed by the Federal Open Market Committee minutes on November 18 and October retail sales on November 17. Fed officials, including Governor Michelle Bowman, are scheduled to speak on November 10. The December 8 to 9 meeting is the last scheduled decision of the year, and with a hike now priced at 98.8%, the market's attention shifts from whether the Fed moves to how far it signals it will go in 2027.

For crypto, the immediate question is whether Bitcoin ($BTC) holds the $73,000 area that contained the November 8 slide, or whether the hot print and the near-certain December hike push it toward $70,000, the level analysts flagged as the next support if the data came in hot. The coin has fallen about 15.9% from its late-September rebound peak near $87,400, and every inflation surprise this autumn has added to the pressure.

Sources

• US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index, October 2026, released November 10, 2026 (primary source: USDL-26-1685; headline CPI-U up 0.4% month over month seasonally adjusted after a 0.6% rise in September, up 0.2% unadjusted to an index of 337.511; core CPI up 0.3%, the same as September and August; food up 0.1%, energy up 1.6%, gasoline up 4.0%; no 12-month changes for headline, core, food or energy because October 2025 data were not collected during the lapse in appropriations; gasoline up 37.4% year over year, new vehicles up 0.7%, used cars and trucks down 3.3%)
• CME Group, FedWatch Tool, data of November 10, 2026 (primary source: 98.8% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the December 9, 2026 meeting, to a 400 to 425 basis point target from 375 to 400; 84.0% one day earlier, 77.4% one week earlier, 69.8% one month earlier; the 98.8% figure was already showing just before the release)
• Yahoo Finance, Bitcoin ($BTC) price data, November 10, 2026 (secondary source: $73,730.30 at 1:42 p.m. UTC, down $885.13, or 1.19%, against the previous close of $75,253.86; about $74,300 before the release, a fall of roughly 0.7% to 0.8% in the first twelve minutes after the release)
• CoinDesk, Bitcoin (BTC) price falls as Fed rate-hike bets build ahead of U.S. CPI report, published November 10, 2026 (secondary reporting: consensus of 0.3% headline and 0.2% core; Governor Christopher Waller said he favored a higher rate even if inflation cooled and a hotter reading could warrant 50 basis points; traders pricing 25 basis points of tightening for December 9; Bitcoin ($BTC) at about $74,200 before the release; September annual readings of 3.7% headline and 2.6% core)
• CoinTelegraph, Bitcoin Price Targets $74,000 After Fed's Waller Supports December Rate Hike, published November 10, 2026 (secondary reporting: Waller's speech at the Bank of England Watchers Conference; markets repriced December hike odds from 76.3% to 96.3% after the speech; the BLS confirmed the release would include only month-on-month statistics)

This article is news reporting and is not investment advice.