Fed Holds Rates at 3.75%-4.00%, Two Officials Wanted Hike

Published October 28, 2026, 11:20 PM PKT. Based on the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee statement of October 28, 2026 (primary source) and reporting by The Edge, Realtor, CoinDesk and Cointelegraph (secondary sources). This is the first MABOnChain article on the October 28 rate decision, and it is distinct from the October 14 article on the hot September inflation report and from the September article on the rate hike itself.

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, 2026, leaving September's increase in place in a 10 to 2 vote, with Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack voting against the decision because they preferred to raise the range by a quarter of a percentage point at this meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee said in its statement, released at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time. The decision was the widely expected outcome, with about 90% to 95% of traders pricing a hold ahead of the announcement, according to CME FedWatch and prediction market data reported before the meeting, but the two dissents in favor of tighter policy, rather than easier policy, are the new information in the statement. Chair Kevin Warsh, who took over as chair in May 2026, voted with the 10 member majority, Realtor reported.

The statement kept the committee's description of the economy short. "Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace," the committee said, and "Inflation remains elevated," it added, repeating the two judgments that have framed the tightening cycle. The committee said more information "will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate," according to The Edge's account of the statement, a formulation that commits to nothing about December while leaving the door open to another increase if the data point that way.

The two dissents

Cook and Hammack are the story inside the vote. Both dissenters wanted a hike now, not a pause, which puts them on the hawkish side of a committee that has just chosen to wait. That matters because dissents are the one part of a rate decision that markets cannot fully price in advance: the hold itself was priced at roughly 95% on Kalshi and Polymarket before the announcement, according to DeFi Rate's October 28 market data, while the identity and direction of any dissenters were not known until the statement landed.

CoinDesk's pre-meeting briefing had flagged dissent as the key theme to watch, arguing that three or more votes for a hike would signal growing urgency to tighten and could strengthen the dollar and weigh on bitcoin. Two dissents fall short of that threshold, but they still point the same way: a minority of the committee already thinks inflation, running at 3.7% for consumers in the year to September according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, warrants another increase without waiting for more data. Hammack has dissented in favor of hikes before, in April and July 2026, according to a 2026 FOMC voter tracker, while Cook had not dissented in the 2024 to 2026 period covered by that tracker, which makes her vote the more notable of the two.

Bitcoin above $81,000

Bitcoin entered the announcement trading just above $81,000, according to CoinDesk's live coverage, after rebounding from below $80,000 earlier in the week as Asian chip stocks led a wider rally in risk assets. Ether was trading near $2,360 at the same time, CoinDesk reported, and Zcash had jumped about 8% back above $1,300. The crypto market's steadiness into the decision fits the pattern of the day: traders had positioned for a hold, so the statement itself removed uncertainty rather than creating a new shock, and attention shifted immediately to what Warsh would say at his press conference, scheduled for 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time, or 11:30 p.m. in Pakistan.

Fund flows into bitcoin products had already turned back up before the meeting. United States spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds took in $176 million on Tuesday, October 27, a second straight day of inflows, according to SoSoValue data reported by Cointelegraph, taking the two day total to $286 million and narrowing October's net outflows to about $26 million. United States spot ether funds moved the other way, recording about $149 million in net outflows on Monday and Tuesday combined, Cointelegraph reported, extending a run of weekly outflows to a fifth week.

December is now the question

The next decision is December 8 to 9, and that meeting, not this one, is where markets expect the next move. Prediction markets put the chance of a hike in December at roughly 73% to 79% ahead of the October announcement, according to Polymarket, Kalshi and CME FedWatch figures compiled by Holder.io and DeFi Rate, and a Reuters poll of economists found 94 of 100 expecting a hold in October while all 100 expected a hike in December, according to FinanceFeeds. The October meeting published no new economic projections and no new dot plot of officials' rate forecasts, so traders have only the statement's wording and Warsh's press conference to judge how firmly the committee leans toward December.

The calendar gives the committee fresh data almost immediately. September personal income and outlays, including the Federal Reserve's preferred PCE inflation index, and the advance estimate of third quarter gross domestic product both arrive on October 29, The Edge noted, less than a day after the decision. Those releases, plus the November 3 midterm elections and the November 10 consumer price report, will shape whether the December hike that markets already price actually arrives, and whether the two dissenters from this meeting gain company by then.

What the hold leaves unchanged

The hold preserves the September 16 increase, when the committee voted 12 to 0 to raise the range by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4.00%, the Federal Reserve's first rate increase since July 2023. September consumer inflation came in at 3.7% over the previous year, well above the committee's 2% target, with energy prices up more than 20% over the same period, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics figures cited in pre-meeting coverage. Mortgage rates, which move with longer term bond yields rather than directly with the federal funds rate, averaged 7.32% last week, according to Freddie Mac data cited by Realtor, a reminder that borrowing costs for households have already risen sharply this year even on a day when the policy rate did not move.

For crypto traders, the practical read is narrow: a hold was expected, a hike was not delivered, and the tightening bias survived the meeting in the form of two dissents and a December pricing skew. That combination leaves bitcoin's near term path tied less to this statement than to Warsh's press conference language, Thursday's inflation and growth data, and whether the December hike priced by markets becomes a consensus inside the committee or stays a market bet.

This article is news reporting and is not investment advice.

Sources

• Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (October 28, 2026), primary source
• The Edge, Warsh's Fed Holds Rates at 3.75% to 4.00%, Leaving September's Hike in Place (October 28, 2026), secondary source
• Realtor, Fed Pauses Interest Rate Hikes for Now as Key Midterm Election Looms (October 28, 2026), secondary source
• CoinDesk, Live updates: Bitcoin climbs above $81,000 as majors rally ahead of Fed decision (October 28, 2026), secondary source
• CoinDesk, Dissents and more: 3 things to watch for at today's Fed meeting (October 28, 2026), secondary source
• Cointelegraph, Bitcoin ETFs Gain $286M as BTC Rebounds Above $80K (October 28, 2026), secondary source